Originally published at: https://blog.12min.com/the-next-100-years-summary/
What will happen in “The Next 100 Years”?
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About George Friedman
George Friedman is the founder of STRATFOR, a forecasting and private intelligence company, and an author.
"The Next 100 Years Summary"“The Next 100 Years” is a compelling and entertaining book in which political analyst George Friedman makes some precise predictions which should play out in the 21st century.
He first visits the cycles of change throughout history, to come to the fifth cycle which should crystalize around the 2020s – and we are yet to experience it.
His did not come up with his predictions out of thin air – he bases them on his rich historical knowledge.
At times, you may think that he becomes too detailed and that he cannot be right since he gives predictions for such a long time-frame.
However, having in mind that he draws parallels between the history and the present, you will surely find his thoughts educational.
Now, as we are already aware of what was happening throughout history, we will briefly cover some of the predictions that Friedman has for the time that awaits us.
He believes that China will try to take dominance in the 2020s, but will not succeed in becoming a major world power, mainly because of its location. He also predicts that China’s economic growth will stop because of systematic weaknesses.
He also tackles Russia, will he believes will want the U.S. out of Afghanistan. Russia will also clash with the U.S. and try to break up NATO, which will lead to another Cold War.
When it comes to the U.S. Friedman is certain that the States will prosper in the decade that starts from 2040, but that it will face tense global relationships.
Other countries will experience tense relationships as well: Japan with China and Siberia, Turkey with India, Poland with Germany et cetera.
demonstrations. Expect military clashes between the two nations by 2080.
Key Lessons from “The Next 100 Years”
- First Cycle
- Second Cycle
- Third Cycle
- Fourth Cycle
- Fifth Cycle
First CycleThe first cycle takes up the mid-1820s when the majority of the population in the U.S. was English. The small group of educated men who later clashed with less educated pioneers was still ruling the country.
Second CycleThe 1870s were colored in colors of conflict between small towns and towns, in which cities gained power. This brought new financial policies and a more stable currency.
Third CycleThe third cycle is shaped by the shift from villages to urban manufacturing centers. During this period in the 1920s, fiscal mistakes culminated into the Depression.
Fourth CycleThe fourth cycle is situated in the 1970s when the population again started moving from industrial cities to the suburbs, which led to a fiscal crisis.
Fifth CycleThe fifth cycle has still not been crystallized, since it will happen around the 2020s, when there will be a clash between the permanent migrant class and the service suburb population of workers.
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“The Next 100 Years” Quotes[bctt tweet="Anger does not make history. Power does." username="get12min"]
[bctt tweet=“Power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.” username=“get12min”]
[bctt tweet="Europe was barbaric in the sixteenth century, as the self-certainty of Christianity fueled the first conquests. " username=“get12min”]
[bctt tweet=“The United States is just beginning its cultural and historical journey.” username=“get12min”]
[bctt tweet=“When you drill down and see the forces that are shaping nations, you can see that the menu from which they choose is limited.” username=“get12min”]